Outcome: an on-chain prediction market on Hyperliquid

Outcome is a prediction market. You take a position on whether something will happen. For example: will Bitcoin be above $80,000 at 06:00 UTC tomorrow? The price you pay reflects the market’s implied probability that it will. A price of 40 cents means the market is collectively pricing the event at 40% likely. Prices move continuously between 0.001 cents and 99.999 cents while the market is open, then settle to exactly 1 USDC if the event happened or 0 if it didn’t.

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A simple example

You buy 100 YES tokens at 40 cents each, paying 40 USDC in total. When the market resolves, one of two things happens:

• The event occurs → your tokens settle at 1 USDC each → your 100 tokens are worth 100 USDC.
• The event does not occur → your tokens settle at 0 → your 100 tokens are worth 0 USDC.

That’s the whole payoff structure. There is no leverage, no liquidations, no margin calls. The most you can lose on any position is what you paid to open it.

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Common use cases

Express a view on a specific event. Buy the outcome you think will happen. Your downside is capped at what you paid, with nothing to manage after the position is open. Hedge an existing position. If you own BTC, buying NO on a market like “will BTC be above $80,000 by tomorrow” gives you protection against a short-term move down. The cost is capped at what you pay for the NO position, with no margin to maintain.

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Get started

Head to Getting Started to connect a wallet, fund your account, and place your first trade. Or go directly to outcome.xyz to see what’s currently live.