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Documentation Index

Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.outcome.xyz/llms.txt

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Outcome supports two types of markets: binary markets and multi-outcome markets. They share the same underlying structure but differ in how many outcomes are possible.

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Binary markets

Binary markets have two mutually exclusive outcomes. Depending on the question, the outcomes are framed differently:
  • YES / NO for event-based markets: “Will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting?”
  • UP / DOWN for directional markets: “Will Bitcoin’s price be higher at 06:00 UTC than now?”
Both framings work mechanically the same way. There are two outcome tokens, their prices sum to approximately C100 (which equals 1 USDH) while the market is open, and exactly one of them settles to 1 USDH at resolution (the other settles to 0). The choice between YES/NO and UP/DOWN framing is about clarity for the user. UP/DOWN is more natural when the question is about price direction; YES/NO is more natural for everything else.

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Multi-outcome markets

Multi-outcome markets have more than two possible outcomes, only one of which can resolve. Each outcome has its own token that pays 1 USDH if it resolves and 0 otherwise. A typical multi-outcome market is one with several candidates or possibilities. For example:
  • A three-way election: tokens for candidate A, candidate B, and candidate C
  • A tournament with multiple teams: one token per team
  • A categorical event: one token per category
The sum of all outcome prices stays close to C100 while the market is open. If a four-outcome market has tokens trading at C30, C25, C25, and C20, the prices sum to C100, reflecting that exactly one outcome will resolve and pay 1 USDH per token. For more on what prices mean and why they sum the way they do, see Outcome tokens and pricing.