Managing prediction market positions on Outcome

Once you have open positions, your portfolio page is where you track them. This covers what you’ll see, how to interpret it, and how to manage existing positions.

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Your portfolio

Every filled order creates or adds to a position. The portfolio view shows each open position with:

• The market and outcome you’re holding.
• Your position size (how many tokens).
• Your average entry price.
• The current market price.
• Your unrealized gain or loss.

If you’ve traded the same outcome multiple times at different prices, the position is aggregated, and your average entry is the size-weighted average across all your fills.

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Cost basis and average entry

Your cost basis is the total amount you’ve paid for a position. If you bought 100 tokens at 40 cents, your cost basis is 40 USDC. If you then bought 50 more tokens at 50 cents, your cost basis is 65 USDC (40 + 25), and your average entry price is 43.333 cents. Cost basis is what you’d need to recover to break even at settlement.

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Realized vs unrealized gains and losses

Unrealized gains and losses are the difference between your average entry price and the current market price, applied to your remaining position size. These move continuously as the market price moves and don’t reflect any actual proceeds. Realized gains and losses are locked in when you close a position (in full or in part) or when a market settles. They become real changes to your USDC balance. If you bought 100 tokens at 40 cents and the price is now 60 cents, your unrealized gain is 20 USDC. If you sell those 100 tokens at 60 cents, that 20 USDC becomes realized.

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Closing a partial position

You don’t have to close a full position at once. Selling fewer tokens than you hold leaves the rest open. For example, if you hold 100 tokens with an average entry of 40 cents and sell 60 at 60 cents, you realize a gain of 12 USDC on the 60 sold (60 tokens × 20 cents = 1,200 cents = 12 USDC). The remaining 40 tokens stay open at the same 40 cents average entry, with their own unrealized gain or loss based on the current market price Partial closes are useful for:

• Taking gains progressively.
• Reducing exposure without exiting entirely.
• Freeing up capital for other trades.

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Positions across recurring market instances

For recurring markets like the daily BTC binary, each instance is a separate market with separate tokens. When today’s instance settles, the next instance is already open with new tokens. Holding a position through settlement does not extend into the new instance. Your tokens settle (at 1 or 0 per token), proceeds go to your USDC balance, and any further exposure requires a new trade in the next instance’s market.

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Formulas

For each open position, the math behind what you see in your portfolio. Average entry price $$\text{average entry} = \frac{\text{total spent on buys}}{\text{total tokens bought}}$$ $$\text{average entry} = \frac{\text{total spent on buys}}{\text{total tokens bought}}$$ The size-weighted average across all your buys of the same outcome. Cost basis (of current position) $$\text{cost basis} = \text{average entry} \times \text{tokens held}$$ $$\text{cost basis} = \text{average entry} \times \text{tokens held}$$ What you’ve paid for the tokens you still hold. Unrealized gain or loss $$\text{unrealized PnL} = (\text{current price} - \text{average entry}) \times \text{tokens held}$$ $$\text{unrealized PnL} = (\text{current price} - \text{average entry}) \times \text{tokens held}$$ The paper value of your position right now. Realized gain or loss on a sale $$\text{realized PnL} = (\text{sale price} - \text{average entry}) \times \text{tokens sold}$$ $$\text{realized PnL} = (\text{sale price} - \text{average entry}) \times \text{tokens sold}$$ Locked in when you close part or all of a position. Settlement payoff $$\text{payoff per token} = \begin{cases} 1 \text{ USDC} & \text{if your outcome resolves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}$$ $$\text{payoff per token} = \begin{cases} 1 \text{ USDC} & \text{if your outcome resolves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}$$ $$\text{total payoff} = \text{tokens held} \times \text{payoff per token}$$ $$\text{total payoff} = \text{tokens held} \times \text{payoff per token}$$ What you receive automatically when the market resolves.